"Krap Out" Kunstler Blows 5th Dow Meltdown Call

Interesting news from Mark Perry at Carpe Diem today: the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, a U.S. future economic growth gauge, rose to its highest level in 26 years, suggesting economic recovery could be its strongest since the early '80s recession.

Mark Perry has been consistently predicting, since the beginning of the year, the current recession would bottom out around mid- to late-summer. Factoring in improvements in the housing market, the Dow's accession above 9,000, China's prelude to promising growth and Europe's recent revitalization, it seems safe to say - even a few months early - that James Kunstler has officially blown his 5th Dow Jones meltdown call.

Aside from prophesying a crash of 4,000 for this year, "Kaptain Krappy" has also made these fabulous Dow forecasts:

• Predicted the Dow cratering to 4,000 in 2005,
  


• 2006,
  


• 2007.

And in his most Joe Montana-like effort ever, James predicted a thousand-point drop during Thanksgiving week of '07. The Dow jumped up 1,000. Did I write Joe Montana? I should have wrote Dr. Wirth=)

Now naturally, this recession has been brutal, and we're not quite out of the woods yet. But for peakers to make comparisons to the Great Depression seems absurd. For a contrast of the two downturns, let's consider...

The Great Depression:

• Number of bank failures: 9,000.
  


• Unemployment peak: 25%.
  


• GDP losses in first three years: -8.6%, -6.4% and -13%.

Versus the current recession:

• Peak unemployment: 9.5% (so far).
  


• # of bank failures: 109 (the S&L Crisis experienced nearly 3,000).
  


• GDP of last, this and next year: -1.3%, -2.0% (projected), +2.2% (projected).

Also, has anyone seen this natural phenomenon?

I heard a while back that James is writing a sequel to his most recent book, "World Made by Hand." Judging from how his and the peakers' fame has swirled down the toilet recently, it may be more suitable for James to hide in a dark corner, and remorsely fiddle "World Stroked by Hand."

- Brewskie

Added: The federal government's spendthrift policies are scary, yes, but for those concerned about drowning in an ocean of inflation, check out another excellent post by Mark Perry. Accompanied by promising graphs.

"Klusterfuck" Kunstler Backpedals on High-Speed Rail

(Note to AndrewRyan: This is not the piece on James Kunstler I was referring to; I had another one in mind. It'll be up this week.)

Old man Kunstler woke up yesterday to howl at the world about the appendix-bursting pain that's stabbing his heart: he took a swipe at Obama's proposed high-speed rail system! This is what he had to say:

One very plain and straightforward example at hand is the announcement last week of a plan to build a high speed rail network. To be blunt about it, this is perfectly f*****g stupid. It will require a whole new track network, because high speed trains can't run on the old rights of way with their less forgiving curve ratios and grades. We would be so much better off simply fixing up and reactivating the normal-speed track system that is sitting out there rusting in the rain -- and save our more grandiose visions for a later time.

Nevermind rebuilding a passenger-rail system has long been a center-piece to Kunstler's 19th century utopia; nevermind that, last year, he bombastically praised a loyal reader's comment on building a high-speed rail network...

A reader from Ohio reminds us of a very important point: "$700 billion could completely rebuild the US passenger system! All the way to complete electrification and to the same standards the French enjoy with their TGVs."Its enough money to bring service to every town of 5000 and up."

Oh Mr. Clusterfuck, your problem is you're a miserable old man who's faced disappointment throughout your life: aside from the '90s, when you wrote several decent books criticizing suburban living, you we're a so-so novelist in the '80s, you banked your credibility with Y2K, and you practically banked the farm betting on oil's peak. You've had nothing but a "lost decade;" you've attempted, fatuously, to prop up this "Frankenstein peak" as if you we're a Fed worker trying - in rhapsodic fashion - to plug the holes in AIG. If you haven't found happiness throughout your life, it's doubtful you'll find it in your utopian 19th century lifestyle.

See you for the Memorial Day weekend blowout, James (more on this later).

- Brewskie