Today, we have this gem from the boyz. It's a declaration that oil production will free fall after this year, seeing a rapid decline from 73-74 mbpd of crude production (stated on the graph), sliding down to about 65 mbpd by 2012 - after which... production will (somehow) glide down rather than fall. Below is a graph, and you can find this load of crap here.
Mind you, these lads - like Mathew Simmons and others in the peak oil community - have been screaming wolf for decades, screeching as loud as their tourette syndrome loaded lungs will allow, as often as their schizophrenic "peak demons" taps them on the shoulders.
- They proclaimed the Ghawar Oil Field has been in decline at a rate of 8% since 2005 (Ghawar increased production last summer, sending it to heights not seen since its record setting year of '81).
- They've proclaimed Saudi Arabia itself is in decline (again, the oil kingdom increased production last summer, sending the slack jaws of the Drum boyz to the floor).
- Three years back, they forecasted a Norht America gas decline this decade. They completely shot down shale gas' potential, and got knocked back on their asses last year when they witnessed, at one point, America's near 9% increase in production - the largest since the late 1950s.
- They failed to forecast oil's Wiley E. Coyote free fall last summer.
- And so on...
The point is these bong boyz have been making failed proclamation after failed proclamation. They cherry pick their interpretations in the face of their detailed graphs and extensive research. Have they mentioned anything about last year's oil glut (I've got stuff coming about this later this week)? How much do they report on the oil glut we have now; the decline in demand occurring presentling, and has been occurring with OECD nations since 2005 (see page 5)? If they're going to make this ludicrous prediction, then let's hold them accountable. Let's ask them why production isn't nose diving in several years. Let's ask them what's wrong with their analysis, and why oil isn't up to $300 a barrel.
This is why mainstream society doesn't take these ostracized cranks seriously: because they're a load of Chicken Littles who've cried wolf far too many times over too many decades.