China Puts the Heat On Germany's Solar Industry

Only a few years ago, Germany was the declared leader in the world's solar industry. This is no longer the case. Asia, China especially, is where the hot solar action is at, being able to produce solar cells quicker and cheaper (link):

Q-Cells, the world's biggest solar cell producer, last week issued a far from glowing set of results, with losses of 700 million euros (984 million dollars) in the first half of the year.

As a result, the German firm said it would cut 500 jobs from its workforce of 2,600 and put others on part-time working arrangements.

The crisis in the German solar industry is affecting small companies as well as giants such as Q-Cells. Only three months ago, start-up Sunline declared bankruptcy with the loss of all its 78 employees.

A glance at the TecDax, Germany's tech-heavy stock market index, nicknamed
"SunDax" for the predominance of solar firms, tells the story, with some companies losing around 30 percent of their value since the start of 2008.

"The fact is that Germany is losing more and more of its market leading position in renewable energy production to the United States and China," said Matthias Fawer from Swiss bank Sarasin, quoted in German weekly Die Zeit.

"Asian cell and module producers are going to squeeze out the Germans," Anne Kreutzmann, the chief editor of solar trade newspaper Photon, told the Financial Times Deutschland.

The main reason is simple: Chinese solar power companies are able to produce cells much more cheaply, due to lower labour costs and also the plummeting price for silicon, the raw material for solar cell manufacture.

Whereas German firms are tied in to long-term contracts for silicon deliveries, Chinese firms have been sourcing it from the spot market, where the price has dropped by around 70 percent in the past few months.

According to a survey from Photon Consulting, while it costs a German firm such as Ersol 1.01 dollars per watt to produce a solar cell, Chinese company Suntech can manufacture the same cell for 35 cents per watt.

All in all, production costs for the solar industry are as much as 30 percent lower in
China than in Germany, according to a UBS study.

Chinese firms also benefit from state support and the effect has been to push prices for solar cells down significantly in the past few years.

Adding to its troubles, the German solar industry's export market, which accounts for over 40 percent of turnover, is beginning to dry up in key areas.

- Brewskie

China's Water Battles

Economic growth, rampant industrialization and overutilization of agricultural soil has loaned China a prospective water dilemma. Here's some creative steps being taken to combat the problem:

With less water, Chinese cities are forced to get creative. Brewery capital Qingdao is using seawater to flush its toilets. A pilot project is underway to use Pacific waters in the city’s commodes, saving potable water for a thirsty population. Across the country, one-third of household water consumption goes down the drain every time a toilet goes flush.

Qingdao wouldn’t be the first Asian city to look to the sea to clean its pipes. In Hong Kong, 80% of the city’s population relies on seawater to take care of their flushing needs.

Already, China has some 20 desalination plants operating around the country to help alleviate water shortages in 400 of the country’s more than major 600 cities, according to China Daily.

- Brewskie

Shanghai Says to Couples, "Relax and Get Busy."

Shanghai is relaxing China's One Child Policy and is encouraging couples to go for doubles.

Fears that an ageing population could be left unable to support itself mean that China's biggest city and financial centre, Shanghai, is overhauling the decades-old One Child Policy and encouraging couples to have a second baby.

Many couples will be excluded from the new diktat, but if both parents were an only child, like most newly-weds in the city, they will be encouraged to conceive again, in an effort to ensure that the city's workforce is not outnumbered by its pensioners.

The rules are already in place, but so far not enough families have taken advantage of the exception. As a result, family planning authorities are going on the offensive, putting flyers under doors and making home visits to make the case for a second baby.

- Brewskie

China Has More Electric Bikes Than Germany Has People

Next Big Future has this interesting bit: China has 100 million bikes - that's 27 million fewer than Japan's population. China's new car sales now exceeds America's; how long will it be before its electric bike "population" surpasses that of the Rising Sun?

Take a gander at this excerpt:

Last year (2008) Chinese bought about 90% of the 23 million e-bikes sold worldwide. Experts say that next regions to likely embrace e-bikes are Southeast Asia, where gas-powered scooters are popular, and India, where rising incomes mean personal transportation is starting to be in reach of hundreds of millions. Japan has seen steady annual sales of about 300,000 for several years, and in the cycle-crazy Netherlands e-bikes are beginning to take off. In the U.S., where bikes are still overwhelmingly used for recreation rather than transportation, e-bike sales are expected to break 200,000 this year, or about 1% of China's sales.

They constituted 90% of worldwide e-bike sales? Our sales constitute 1% of China's? Geesh, thunder thighs, put down the Pringles and get your fat ass in shape.

Here's a description of the typical e-bike sold in China:

• Typical e-bikes in China have 100 km on a full charge.

• Official top speed is 12mph but many go 30 mph.

• Typical e-bikes in China cost 2000 RMB (USD290).

• In 2006 there were 2,700 licensed manufacturers, and countless additional smaller shops.

• Leading manufacturer Xinri makes 1.6 million e-bikes per year.

Here is a description of the Aston Martin of e-bikes, the ErockIT. 50 mph can be yours for only $39,000.

- Brewskie

Suntech's 1.8GW of New Chinese Solar Projects

Suntech recently announced four new solar power facilities.

Suntech Power Holdings, one of the world's largest photovoltaic module makers, yesterday announced plans for four new on-grid photovoltaic solar projects in China with a compbined capacity of 1.8GW.

The New York Stock Exchange-listed company said it had signed solar plant construction deals with the governments of Shaanxi province and Shizuishan
ity in Ningxia Autonomous Region.

The Shaanxi facility will have an installed capacity of 300MW, while the other three developments will have a capacity 500MW each, delivering a total of 1.8GW of solar capacity from the new projects.

All four projects will need to be approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, which administers China's energy policy, and secure a sufficient amount of investment and project financing before they can proceed, said Suntech.

However, executives are likely to be optimistic that approval can be attained given the government recently announced a 15-fold increase in its solar energy targets for 2011 to two gigawatts and has signalled that solar power will play a key role in its efforts to curb carbon emissions.

- Brewskie

And What About Chinese Oil Demand?

(Hat tip: Eric J. Fox)

Stock Market Prognosticator had this snippet on Chinese oil demand. Take an ambien and relax=)

Well so much for demand for Energy from China. This demand growth has always been hyped by Energy bulls, but as I and many others have stated previously, what really matters is demand growth from the the U.S. and other industrialized nations.

Here is how the math works:Oil demand in 2009 for the OECD countries is 45.2 million barrels per day, down 2.3 million barrels per day from 2008.China oil demand is 7.9 million barrels per day. Let's assume that it grows at 5% a year, or about 400,000 barrels per day.

As you can see, the fall in demand from the OECD easily wipes out demand growth from China by a factor of at least five.

- Brewskie

China Rumored to be Implementing Strict Fuel-Economy Standards

China's calls itself the "most business friendly country in the world (others would beg to differ)," and China seems intent to follow one business maxim with energy: doing more with less.

The new plan would require automakers in China to improve fuel economy by an additional 18 percent by 2015, said An Feng, a leading architect of China’s existing fuel economy regulations who is now the president of the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation, a nonprofit group in Beijing.

The plan is going through the interagency approval process, with comments sought from automakers, and is scheduled for release early next year, he said.

The average fuel economy of family vehicles in China is already higher than in the United States, mainly because cars in China tend to be considerably
smaller than those in the United States — and are getting even smaller because of recent tax changes.

Cars with small fuel-sipping engines are now subject to a 1 percent tax, while sports cars and sport utility vehicles with the largest engines are subject to a 40 percent tax. Stricter fuel economy standards have won support from four interest groups within the Chinese government, said a Chinese government official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue.

[...]

China uses a different system from the United States to regulate fuel economy. China sets minimum standards for each of 16 weight categories and tests only urban fuel economy, not highway driving.

Adjusted for these differences, the average new car, minivan or sport utility vehicle in China already gets the equivalent of 35.8 miles a gallon this year based on the American measurement system of corporate averages and will be required to get 42.2 miles a gallon in 2015, Mr. An said.By comparison, President Obama announced last week that each automaker will be required to reach a corporate average of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016.

The details of China’s new fuel economy standards may favor domestic automakers at the expense of multinationals, several auto industry officials said. That is because the new rules call for the steepest increases in fuel economy — as much as 26 percent — for midsize and compact cars, market segments where multinationals are strong. Subcompacts, a market where domestic automakers are stronger, will be required to increase their gas mileage by as little as 9 percent compared with the existing standards, which took effect on Jan. 1.

- Brewskie

China's Rapacious Drive to Electric Cars

More on China's drive to turn the "lights" on for electric cars:

China is the only major car market still growing in the world, and it could mean the difference between life or death for some of these companies.

There's also been a lot of buzz that China is the place where electric cars will take off. Nick Reilly, the head of GM in Asia, said there was a "clear need" in Chinese cities for a small electrified car and that if the government handed out enough subsidies, "there could be very rapid sales growth".

[...]

Mr Reilly said that a closer look at the range and recharging abilities of the Chinese cars showed they weren't very different from technology elsewhere.

What will make China the leader in electric cars, however, is the infrastructure. Again according to GM, China is already able to absorb the impact of a huge switchover to electric vehicles without much new investment.

Kevin Wale, the former head of Vauxhall who now heads GM in China, said: "We are talking to the power grid, as are all car manufacturers who are interested in electric cars, and we don't think infrastructure us a major issue. The widespread distribution of electric cars can be more than covered by the existing power grid."

On top of that, China is pouring money into new nuclear power stations, wind farms and hydroelectric dams to increase the share of electricity it produces cleanly. As Greenpeace says, an electric car is only as green as the electricity it runs on.

One former car industry executive told me that China's strategy is straightforward. First, it builds the infrastructure. Then it waits for foreign brands to unveil their electric car technology. Then the technology gets "adapted".

- Brewskie

China's Hungry Ambition to Become the Electric Car Capitol

Napoleon may have been a sage when he said, "Let China sleep, for when she awakes, she will shake the world (article link here)."

Senior Chinese officials on Friday outlined how they aimed to turn their country into the world’s largest producer of electric cars, including a focus on consumer choice rather than corporate subsidies.

Speaking at a conference at the government’s prestigious Diaoyutai guesthouse here, the officials acknowledged that their efforts faced challenges in terms of the cost and safety of electric cars. They promised a nationwide effort by manufacturers, universities, research institutes and government agencies to overcome these obstacles.

We need to be sustainable in different sectors, particularly in the auto sector,” he said.

Zhang Shaochun, a vice minister of finance, said that the government wanted to let the market determine which electric vehicle models would become popular. So while the government is providing some research subsidies, the main step will be to provide very large subsidies for buyers of electric cars — already up to 60,000 yuan, or $8,800, for purchases by taxi fleets and local government agencies.

"The fiscal subsidy gives voting rights to the consumer,” he said.

China also has a 10 billion yuan ($1.46 billion) program to help the industry with automotive innovation.

In the United States, the government is providing $25 billion to help cover Detroit’s research costs in the coming years.

[...]

Electric car makers may find it easier to gain a following in the Chinese market than in other countries. First-time buyers in China are less accustomed to the power of gasoline-powered cars; most commutes are short and slow because of traffic jams; and Chinese law makes it hard for consumers to sue automakers for safety problems.

- Brewskie

Huge Chinese Solar Subidies

Asia's mighty and emerging tiger, China, is dead serious about meeting future energy needs, present and future. Here's a look at a recently announced government subsidy program:

The Chinese government on Thursday announced what some industry analysts called the most aggressive and generous solar power subsidy in the world, giving Chinese solar companies a big market boost amid a generally gloomy outlook for short-term growth.

China's solar subsidy plan would offer 20 yuan (about $2.94) per watt for solar photovoltaic installations greater than 50 kilowatts. That would essentially cover half the cost of entire installations at today's low solar panel prices, according to an RBC Capital Markets analyst note.

[...]

Likewise, RBC Capital Markets analysts Stuart Bush and Sandeep Ayyappan noted Friday that the Chinese subsidy plan, while "an unexpected boost to global demand," didn't provide many details on when it would be implemented and how it would be structured.

Still, the Chinese subsidy announcement – combined with European nations' existing feed-in tariffs and other supports for solar power, as well as new and more generous U.S. solar incentives (see Obama Signs Stimulus Package) – gave the analysts hope that prices would stabilize from their downward march, helping to stem the build-up of inventory throughout the silicon solar panel supply chain.

[...]

Of course, China – along with much of Asia – holds the advantage of lower labor costs compared to production facilities in the U.S. and Europe. Asia could produce 82 percent of the world's crystalline silicon solar cells by 2012, up from 71 percent in 2008, according to a new GTM Research report, "PV Technology, Production and Cost, 2009 Forecast: The Anatomy of a Shakeout." (see Go East, Solar Companies).

- Brewskie

The Masters of Everything Cheap, the Chinese, Have Cheap Non-Silicon Solar Cells

Who says solar will never work? The masters of everything cheap - the big country that "drinks our milkshake ('I drink it all!')," the Chinese - have figured out how to make dye-sensitized solar cells without ruthenium and volatile electrolytes. Another golden jewel from Technology Review:

Dye-sensitized solar cells could make solar power more affordable: they are cheaper to make than conventional silicon solar cells and can easily be printed on flexible surfaces. But there's a catch: creating efficient cells of this type has required dyes made of the precious metal ruthenium and volatile electrolytes. Now researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have replaced both of these materials in a new kind of dye-sensitized solar cell that is not only highly efficient: it also promises to be even cheaper and more durable.

The key to the advance is a new organic dye molecule designed by chemistry professor Peng Wang and his colleagues. Organic dyes reduce the cost of making the cells because they are more abundant and cheaper to obtain than ruthenium compounds. The researchers also use a different type of electrolyte called an ionic liquid. This produces a more robust solar cell: the electrolytes that are currently used contain organic solvents that can evaporate and leak out at high temperatures. The ionic liquid can also be used with plastic, opening up the possibility of flexible solar cells. "We demonstrated for the first time that an all-organic dye can be employed to make stable, solvent-free cells exhibiting a high efficiency comparable to ruthenium dyes," Wang says.

The researchers set a new efficiency record for cells incorporating organic dye molecules. To compete with conventional solar cells, dye-sensitized ones need to be at least 10 percent efficient at converting light into electricity. Wang and his colleagues achieved 9.8 percent efficiency with the new organic dyes.

[...]

They plan to reach efficiencies of 14 percent by the end of next year using nonvolatile electrolytes.

Many of the freaks who say solar won't work are misanthropes who isolate themselves from reality, who don't understand technology. Take your white beach zombie skin out into the sunlight once in a while to see what's really going on.

- Brewskie

China, Saudi Arabia Team Up for Desalination Projects

Ironic: two-thirds of the world is covered with water, and only 3% is fresh water. Even with 3%, there's still plenty of water; the problem - its availability in particular parts of the world, the scarcity of clean water, or diminishing sources of water because of climate change.

China and the Middle East are remedying this by building desalination plants. Desalination isn't cheap: it's expensive, energy-intensive; but with a growing population, the availability of drinkable water is a must.

Shanghai Electric Power Generation Group (SECPG), and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power International recently announced a partnership to work on power and desalination projects. The article can be read here.

The two countries also singed a deal that allows Chinese companies to explore and develop oil and gas projects.

- Brewskie

China Faces Worst Drought in 50 Years

(Hat tip: Peak Energy) Asia's tiger on steroids is facing a double calamity: the layoff of millions of migrant factory workers, who've lost their jobs in the economic downturn, and a deadly drought that's the worst in 50 years.

From the Times...

The worst drought in half a century has parched fields across eight
provinces in northern China and left nearly four million people without proper
drinking water. Not a drop of rain has fallen on Beijing for more than 100
days, the longest dry spell for 38 years in a city known for its arid climate.
The Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters described the
drought as a phenomenon “rarely seen in history” as the Government declared a
state of emergency.

Plus,

The drought could hardly have come at a worse time for the leadership, which is already gearing for possible social instability with some 20 million rural
migrants now out of work after losing their jobs in coastal factories and in
cities. Many have returned to work their farms while they wait for the economic
climate to improve but may now find they are unable to grow a harvest with no
water for irrigation.

And...

The absence of rain or snow since November has affected 9.5 million hectares of farmland - 43 per cent of the winter wheat sources.

One agriculture expert said that the drought could reduce annual production
in major wheat-growing areas by 2 to 5 percent. Ma Wenfeng said: “The
severest-hit regions of Henan and Anhui will see their wheat harvest down by
about 20 percent.”

- Brewskie

Evidence Suggests China Surpassed America's January Auto Sales

Strong evidence suggests China surpassed America's auto sales last month - a trend, if contiuned, will eventually turn China into the world's largest car market.

From the article:

Official data for China's auto sales in January will not be out until next week. But they are expected to show sales at about 790,000 units for the month, Zhang Xin, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities in Beijing, said Wednesday.

In the U.S., meanwhile, auto sales in January tumbled 37 percent to 656,976 vehicles, the lowest monthly level in 26 years.

Plus...

General Motors is one of China's biggest automakers, with billions of dollars invested in joint ventures and a record 1.09 million vehicles sold in 2008, up 6 percent from the year before.
Struggling GM has been counting on the growth in China, which passed up Japan in 2006 to become the world's second-largest vehicle market, thanks to strong sales to the country's fast-growing middle class.

But lately China's car market has been cooling as consumers hold off on big purchases. Domestic vehicle sales rose only 6.7 percent in 2008 to 9.38 million units - the first time growth has fallen below 10 percent since 1999.

And January's sales in China fell about 8 percent from the monthly record 860,000 vehicles in January 2008. That same month in the U.S., sales topped 1 million.

- Brewskie