The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects a slower rebound in oil demand next year than the International Energy Agency, based on a weaker outlook for the global economy.
Worldwide crude-oil consumption will increase by 500,000 barrels a day, or 0.6 percent, to 84.3 million a day in 2010 as industrial production gradually picks up after this year’s recession, OPEC said in a report today. That compares with an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 85.2 million, forecast by the IEA on July 10.
Next year’s 2.3 percent increase in global gross domestic product will be driven by emerging countries, such as China and India, while economic growth among developed nations will remain “anemic,” OPEC said. The Paris-based IEA, which advises 28 consuming countries, assumes a stronger global GDP rebound of 2.5 percent.
OPEC’s 2010 projection is 300,000 barrels a day lower than the 84.6 million barrels a day estimated in the organization’s World Oil Outlook released on July 8. The monthly report is based on more timely data than the outlook, which projects through to 2013.
Demand for OPEC
OPEC, whose members account for about 40 percent of global oil supply, anticipates that demand for its own oil will shrink for a third year in 2010, by 400,000 barrels a day to 28.1 million a day.
OPEC estimated that production from outside the group will increase by 330,000 barrels a day next year to 50.96 million barrels a day, as a result of projects in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Canada. Non-OPEC supply expectations for 2009 were kept nearly unchanged at 50.62 million barrels a day.