Tuesday, July 14, 2009

OPEC Foresees Lower 2010 Oil Demand Than IEA

Who will win the war of the pessimists?

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects a slower rebound in oil demand next year than the International Energy Agency, based on a weaker outlook for the global economy.

Worldwide crude-oil consumption will increase by 500,000 barrels a day, or 0.6 percent, to 84.3 million a day in 2010 as industrial production gradually picks up after this year’s recession, OPEC said in a report today. That compares with an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 85.2 million, forecast by the IEA on July 10.


Next year’s 2.3 percent increase in global gross domestic product will be driven by emerging countries, such as China and India, while economic growth among developed nations will remain “anemic,” OPEC said. The Paris-based IEA, which advises 28 consuming countries, assumes a stronger global GDP rebound of 2.5 percent.

OPEC’s 2010 projection is 300,000 barrels a day lower than the 84.6 million barrels a day estimated in the organization’s World Oil Outlook released on July 8. The monthly report is based on more timely data than the outlook, which projects through to 2013.

Demand for OPEC

OPEC, whose members account for about 40 percent of global oil supply, anticipates that demand for its own oil will shrink for a third year in 2010, by 400,000 barrels a day to 28.1 million a day.


OPEC estimated that production from outside the group will increase by 330,000 barrels a day next year to 50.96 million barrels a day, as a result of projects in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Canada. Non-OPEC supply expectations for 2009 were kept nearly unchanged at 50.62 million barrels a day.

- Brewskie


  1. Along with the natural gas glut I think I can smell a mid term oil glut coming.
    From a Hirsh Report perspective, if net depletion is six years from now (as per Shell and other supermajors) then we have started mitigating some six years early.
    According to Hirsch we need ten years to avert a liquid fuels shortfall.
    What Hirsch wasn't taking into account is that we have two viable substitutes:
    CNG vehicles and Electric Vehicles.

    Seems that the market is plugging the gap ahead of time and doom is not coming. Worst I can see is a rough five years starting 2015.

    Unlike what our doomer friends seem to think.


  2. DB-
    If then. Brewskie justed posted about another 2 mbd of natural gas condensates coming on the market. Then we have CTL plants going up in the Far East. And who knows, maybe the UT Arlington are serious about conveting lignite to oil at $35 to $70 a barrel.
    Or maybe sanity will prevail somewhere in Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Mexico, KSA et al. Right now, the nutcases rule the joint. It may change.
    I'd say the risk is to the producers of oil. It could be glutted market for a long time. Or, if they do not figure out how to make oil cheap and reliable, a bypassed market. B Cole

  3. DB,

    There's no question peak will occur someday, but what doomers get wrong is how fast depletion will occur. Plenty of evidence suggests post-peak oil will be a slow sap, not a "drop off of Niagara Falls" crash. As I've demonstrated in several posts, if non-OPEC crude production, which has been declining since 2005 and is down 1 mbpd since 2004, is any indicator, then global peak will offer little in terms of slaughtering developed civilization. Even King Hubbert, Peakers' revered high prophet, apparently argued in his theory that global peak will be a slow squeeze, not a death-rattling crash.

  4. B Cole,

    Indeed... China and her coal surplus, plus if the University of Texas's CTL breakthrough holds true, this could offer massive potential for CTL fuels.