Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Oil Bear to Eat $28 Oil This Spring?

While Ghawar Guzzler has been cocksure about America's abundant natural gas situation, it's been somewhat less forth-coming about oil's price and supply - though its been adamant that low prices and good supply should continue for some time. The recent run-up in price over $50 (no biggie; we thought $80 per barrel last fall was cheap - remember?) seemed to be caused more by the shitty dollar, as opposed to "supply and demand" fundamentals; especially in the face of declining demand, ongoing gluts (think ocean tankers and Cushings, OK), and no sign of normal appetite for at least the rest of the year.

One great dame, Stephanie Aymes, is growling like a bear. She sees $28 a barrel by the second-quarter, and possibly $16 or lower after that. Time will tell if she's correct (she's forecasting $71 a barrel next month), but I thought I'd post this anyway (link):

Crude oil is set to drop to $28 a barrel in New York in the second quarter, according to technical analysis by Societe Generale SA.

Prices may rally until meeting resistance at $71 a barrel and then plunge to their lowest since 2003, Societe Generale analyst Stephanie Aymes said, using charts that make use of Elliott Wave theory.

“The market can continue to bounce, but in the next month the bear-trend will resume,” Aymes said in a telephone interview from London yesterday. Her prediction that oil will fall to $28 was made in the Paris-based bank’s technical analysis for commodities in the second quarter.

Aymes’s analysis using the Elliott Wave indicates that prices will rise, a rally bound by the $71 a barrel level last traded in November, and then drop to $33.20, a support shown by a trend-line of low points reached in the past 10 years. A drop below $33.20 opens the way for a further decline to a range between $28 and $25, her charts show. After that, support comes at $16.50 and $10 a barrel.

- Brewskie

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