Monday, June 22, 2009

Who Needs Cantarell?

One of the most popular firearms for this peakers' drive by shooting summer is the Canatrell collapse cannon. "Canterll collapsed in 2004 at 2 mbpd. It's down to 700,000 bpd; it's no longer Mexico's largest-producing field (Ku Maloob Zaap is)! I say: who needs it?

In 2007, Mexico was supplying America with 1.3 mbpd, making it effectively America's 3rd largest supplier. However, like much of the developed world, America has shrank the flubby ballast in response to high oil price overdose. As we can see from the graph below...

her appetite has shrunk considerably from the 21+ mbpd day she gorged on back in 2005, to under 19 mbpd currently. A recent estimate holds steady at 18.74 mbpd; the 2Q US oil usage is projected to be 4.2% lower than of last year, making it the lowest in 12 years. Don't slack now kids, let's keep up the good work!

As I've also posted before, despite Canatrell and the N Sea's seemingly sharp drops, non-OPEC crude production hasn't declined that catastrophically since its record in 2004:

She's declined an average of roughly 1 mbpd - that's an annual depletion rate of less than 1%! That's a far cry from the peakers' call of 5%, 6.5% 8% (I've even heard as high as 13%!). It also fits the debunkers' assertion that global peak will result in a slow decline, not a hard crash. It seems King Hubbert thought so, too.
So while Canatrell is giving up the ghost, OECD countries move on without a care...

And let's not forget that non-OPEC total liquids has been kicking ass; that we have our friendly neighbor to the north, Canada, who in good time pick up the slack where Mexico is leaving off (with unpardonable environmental sins, of course). So I say... let Canatrell die, because with 700,000 bpd to date, it can't hurt things much more.

In actuality, there is one country that needs Canatrell badly: Mexico. This impoverished nation receives 40% of its federal budget through oil revenues. With declining oil revenue, Mexico is still loaded with poverty, illiteracy, gangs, drug wars and guns. Somebody might want to tell Dr. Wirth he may want to reconsider his location for a peak oil sustainability.

- Brewskie

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